Thirteen Days

I am currently reading Thirteen Days by Robert F. Kennedy.  This book is a memoir of the Cuban missile crisis and provides many key lessons in understanding how groups make decisions.  In the case of the Bay of Pigs, the group was an all-star team of characters who were able to put their heads together to make a colossal blunder.

Numerous errors in seeking and receiving information are prevalent throughout the Bay of Pigs decision process. Negativity dominance was apparent during their discussions as they typically focused only on worst-case scenarios and allowed fear to play a major role in the final decision. This impacted the decision-making process by not allowing the group to think about all possible outcomes of their actions and not encouraging the group to think about a more creative, less destructive solution. Confirmation bias was also found in this process as the decision makers typically were only interested in hearing arguments that supported their point of view. This influenced the group decision-making process by not allowing valid arguments to be heard and taken seriously. Groupthink also reinforces the power of the situation. Many of the wisest individuals can be brought together as one collective “dream team” to tackle a tough situation. Unfortunately, due to the forces at work in the group dynamic, these individuals often make a suboptimal decision in the end.