Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Ouch!

From the Development Crossing blog:

Two passengers on Spirit Airlines wrote the company to complain about their delayed flight which caused them to miss a concert.

Baldanza (Spirit's CEO) supposedly told one of his staff in an email to handle the complaint and said, "we owe him nothing as far as I'm concerned. Let him tell the world how bad we are. He's never flown us before anyway and will be back when we save him a penny."


He then hit "reply to all" which included the couple's email address as well.

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Subprime

Here is an interesting map from Fortune that details subprime exposure by state:

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/storysupplement/subprime_statebystate/

More or less, this is what we already suspected. Subprime exposure is limited to certain pockets of the country, but can have an effect on almost everyone.

Thursday, August 16, 2007

This is me today...

Hedge Fund Crisis

The fictitious hedge fund Short-Term Capital, run by Bloomberg satirist Mark Gilbert does a nice job of parodying the recent wave of hedge fund letters:

As our alpha generation collapses, our beta has turned negative, our delta
hedging has gone toxic and, trust me, you do not want to hear about our gamma.
We can't even find our epsilons in the dark with both hands…

We have, of course, been in touch with the rating companies to update
our default-probability scenarios, particularly on the AAA rated investments we
own. They recommended a forecasting method using stochastics to regress the
drift-to-downgrade timescales for the past 100 years and throw them forward for
the next five minutes. The technical term for this is ``induction,'' though
those of you of a less quantitative bent may know it as ``guessing.''

Thursday, August 9, 2007

Democratic Debate

There were some interesting comments made at the Democratic Debate the other night, which I don't necessarily agree with:

"You know, six and a half years ago, we had a balanced budget and a surplus; now we are in deep debt with a rising deficit, and it is absolutely true that George Bush has put it on the credit card, expecting our children and grandchildren to pay for it." -- Sen. Hillary Clinton.

The last time I checked, the budget deficit for this year was forecast to be $207 billion, half of what it was in 2004. (The budget might actually be back in the black when the next president takes office.) And while Bush did inherit a balanced budget and surplus from Clinton, neither administration successfully fixed the $100 trillion unfunded liability problem with Social Security and Medicare.

"Well, look, people don't want a cheaper T-shirt if they're losing a job [from free trade] in the process." -- former Sen. John Edwards.

Inexpensive T-shirts vs. outsourced jobs isn' t really the debate. According to research from the International Institute for Economics, Americans are $7,000 to $13,000 richer because of trade, and removing all trade barriers would permanently increase our wealth by $4,000 to $13,000 per household. Since the North American Free Trade Agreement took effect in 1994, America has added nearly 30 million net new jobs.

"It means that we are also not running up deficits and asking China to bail us out and finance them, because it's pretty hard to have a tough negotiation when the Chinese are our banker." -- Sen. Barack Obama.

This is the myth that "China holds all the cards." The Chinese government needs fast growth to hold down social unrest and justify the continued dominance of the Communist Party there. The most likely cause of a slowdown in China would be a slowdown here first. The last thing China wants to do is start dumping U.S. bonds and cause a recession here.

Monday, August 6, 2007

Lollapalooza

We are in the midst of yet another volatile day in the market today, but regardless, it feels good to be sitting down in an air-conditioned office after spending the last three days on my feet in the muggy heat that was Lollapalooza. This was my fourth Lollapalooza festival, and even though the weather wasn't exactly pleasant, I have to rank it within the top two. Here is my ranking (last to first) of each act that I saw over the weekend:

21: Peter Bjorn and John - They were only able to play 1.5 songs due to technical difficulties, but I saw them at the Empty Bottle a few months ago and can attest that they put on a great show.

20: Bound Stems - I had to check out this local band. I wasn't impressed, but I didn't see their full set so I could be mistaken.

19: Tapes 'n Tapes

18: Aqueduct

17: Annuals

16: LCD Soundsystem

15: Viva Voce - You can't go wrong with a chick that can absolutely rock out.

14: Kid Sister

13: Pearl Jam - This was probably my 12th time seeing Eddie and the boys and they don't disappoint. Their set was even better with fireworks going off in the backdrop.

12: Ghostland Observatory - This is one of my favorite groups right now, but I didn't think the sound was great this time. Regardless, you have to witness Aaron Behrens in person to believe it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSXDAhVxEnw

11: MIA

10: Yeah Yeah Yeahs

9: TV on the Radio

8: Matt and Kim - These two get the award for Most Fun Act.

7: Matt Roan - This Chicago DJ really knows how to shake up the party.

6: Kings of Leon - The beards are gone, but the sound is still awesome.

5: Daft Punk - The special effects for this show might have the been the coolest I've ever seen.

4: Flosstradamus

3: The Rapture

2: Cold War Kids - I can't believe I hadn't seen these guys until this weekend. I can't wait until they come back to Chicago.

1: Muse

Friday, August 3, 2007

Thursday, August 2, 2007

China

The Bush administration warned Congress today that a legislative drive to force China into letting its currency rise in value more quickly could backfire and damage the U.S. economy. How the policymakers handle this situation is extremely important and will have a significant impact on the global economy. Recently a group of leading economists signed a petition that stated the following:


We, the undersigned, have serious concerns about the recent protectionist sentiments coming from Congress, especially with regards to China.

By the end of this year, China will most likely be the United States' second largest trading partner. Over the past six years, total trade between the two countries has soared, growing from $116 billion in 2000 to almost $343 billion in 2006. That's an average growth rate of almost 20% a year.

This marvelous growth has led to more affordable goods, higher productivity, strong job growth, and a higher standard of living for both countries. These economic benefits were made possible in large part because both China and the United States embraced freer trade.

As economists, we understand the vital and beneficial role that free trade plays in the world economy. Conversely, we believe that barriers to free trade destroy wealth and benefit no one in the long run. Because of these fundamental economic principles, we sign this letter to advise Congress against imposing retaliatory trade measures against China.

There is no foundation in economics that supports punitive tariffs. China currently supplies American consumers with inexpensive goods and low-interest rate loans. Retaliatory tariffs on China are tantamount to taxing ourselves as a punishment. Worse, such a move will likely encourage China to impose its own tariffs, increasing the possibility of a futile and harmful trade war. American consumers and businesses would pay the price for this senseless war through higher prices, worse jobs, and reduced economic growth.

We urge Congress to discard any plans for increased protectionism, and instead urge lawmakers to work towards fostering stronger global economic ties through free trade.

This petition was posted in the WSJ this week. We'll see if it does any good...