Morningstar's Bob Johnson provides full analysis here.
Yes, the December report disappointed. Expectations were for job growth of 150,000 but the number came out at 103,000 which is not much better than the full-year average of 94,000. However, Bob points out that the unemployment rate dropped to 9.4% due to prior month revisions.
This LA Times article doesn't necessarily see the reduction in unemployment rate as a positive because the rate may have dropped due to workers giving up looking for jobs. Fair point.
Either way, these mixed results continue to point to a tougher recovery phase than one might expect in an environment characterized by near 0% interest rates and massive stimulus measures. I do think it's important to note that we have now seen four consecutive months of upward revisions. This is a positive development that I hope continues. It's also worth pointing out that we will not see 5% unemployment anytime soon. We would need 5-6 years of 2.5-3 million jobs a year to get there. Unfortunately, I think high unemployment is here to stay.
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